I look out my office window as I write this and we finally have a sunny day—and it’s 82 degrees. And on top of that, it’s a Friday afternoon! A perfect day to ramp-up your vitamin D levels. So let’s get into this letter and get it done.
Regarding the markets, April had an excellent rebound from the horror show that was March. Read More
Well, here we are still stuck in social distancing due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Retail shops, bars, clubs, restaurants, and almost everything else are closed for probably another month. Even Major League Baseball is in hiding. Every new day looks like yesterday. The only excitement these days is in the markets. And that is the last place we want drama.
April has been a welcome relief to the Read More
Well, that sure escalated quickly! The old saying is that markets go up on an escalator and come down on an elevator. Over the long-term this month and perhaps this entire year will be an elevator trip to the lower floors. But if history is any guide (and is there any better guide?), the long and relentless march from the lower left of the chart to the upper right will continue. Nothing has ever stopped that march, and I doubt this virus and lower oil prices will either.
As I write this morning, Read More
After last week and the beginning of this week, I think it is a good time to address the world-wide gorilla in the room—Coronavirus, or COVID-19, as it is now officially named. Monday and Tuesday were horrible days in the markets as many people (and algorithms) panicked out of equities and moved to cash or Bonds. We will not panic here.
Let’s look at the good news first. Read More
I finished a good Audible Book this summer, 12 Rules for Life by Jordan Peterson[i]. Since writing this best selling book Dr. Peterson has become a worldwide celebrity and YouTube sensation. His lectures, blogs, podcasts, and talk-show appearances, are watched by hundreds of millions throughout the world. He just wrapped up a 160 worldwide city tour in the last year. He has over 2 million subscribers to his YouTube channel. All of which to say is pretty darn good Read More
October 15, 2019
The third quarter of the year is in the books and we move boldly and bravely into the last quarter of 2019. And as we approach the end of the year we need to think if we have hit the limits of our retirement account contributions. If you’re still working this is a worthwhile endeavor. Here is a quick list of the particular retirement plan limits (there are a mirade of retirement account possibilities.)
Type of Account Limit per tax year Per Month 50 YOA or over? Per Month
401K $19,000 $1,583 +$6,000 $2,083
403B $19,000 $1,583 +$6,000 $2,083
457 $19,000 $1,583 +$6,000 $2,083
SIMPLE $13,000 $1,083 +$3,000 $1,333
IRA $ 6,000 $ 500 +$1,000 $ 583
*Roth versions of the above (if available) are subjected to the same limits. Read More
September 16, 2019
It is better to practice lifeboat drills before the ship hits an iceberg then after. And icebergs in the economy are recessions. The difference being that ships rarely hit icebergs anymore, but the economic cycle does include recessions at a fairly regular clip.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than two quarters . . . normally visible in real gross domestic product, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.[1] NBER has a committee of Ph.D. economists who decide by looking through the data whether or not we experienced a recession. The actual recession call is a trailing indicator since the data must be in before the recession can be identified. The official call as to whether we experienced a recession comes after the event. The call is non-predictive since even a room full of Ph.D.’s cannot accurately tell the future. Read More
August 8, 2019
Forty years ago, August 13, 1979, BusinessWeek (the magazine) ran its infamous cover story, “The Death of Equities.” Of all the magazine covers that have been framed, and hung on the walls of Financial Advisors throughout the world, this must rank as the top one. The article has not aged well. In fact, history has made a laughing stock of the article and the magazine.
As a disinterested 19-year-old, I didn’t read the original run of the essay. I was, however, already investing in my 457 retirement account and today I’m thankful I didn’t read it. Read More
April 16, 2019
I write this on April 16th, one day after our tax returns were due and in 2019, it is also tax-freedom day. Tax Freedom Day is the calendar day in which the average American as a whole will finally have earned enough to pay all of the taxes its Government(s) require. According to the Tax Foundation (a leading independent Tax Policy Research organization) in 2019 Americans will pay $3.4 Trillion in federal taxes and $1.8 Trillion in state and local taxes. That is about 29% of the nation’s income. [i] That is more than we spend on food, clothing, and housing, combined. Taxes are, by a wide margin, our largest household expense.
It was just in FY 1990 that tax revenue surpassed the $1 trillion mark and here we are 29 years later and we are over $3.4 Trillion.[ii] The USA has the largest GDP in the world and consequently, our government spends more than any other country in the world—even China and Germany added together. In fact, add Germany, Japan, France, and the UK’s fiscal spending together and we still spend more.[iii] And our $3.4 Trillion in taxes collected are more than any country in the world.
There’s not much we can do about our taxes—taxes are one of the two proverbial things that are guaranteed in life. We all know the other. Y Read More
